Population Trend of Jakarta “Was Thanos Right?”
A brief look at the trend of population growth in Jakarta, the contrasting views around it, and its aggregate impact
“When I’m done, half of humanity will still exist. Perfectly balanced, as all things should be.”
“You were going to bed hungry, scrounging for scraps. Your planet was on the brink of collapse. I’m the one who stopped that. You know what’s happened since then? The children born have known nothing but full bellies and clear skies. It’s a paradise.” — Thanos
Thanos, a fictional character from the Marvel Cinematic Universe (MCU), aimed to eliminate half of the creatures in this universe. In a way, his desire is relatable to our Earth’s condition and its ever-growing problems including the massive population in some areas that have outnumbered the quantity of available natural resources. This has resulted in the spike of criminal cases in those areas.
A similar occurrence seems to appear in the city where I live, Jakarta. Some believe that this city’s monstrous size has, in a way, paved the hardship that Jakartans have to deal with on a daily basis. Generally speaking, as Jakarta’s population increases, many people start worrying about the rise of environmental, social, and economic issues. Yet, is it statistically proven? Is there any correlation between a large population number and other variables of urban living conditions such as economy, energy consumption, and unemployment? Supposing there is one, how big is the impact?
What about Jakarta? (Jakarta’s Context & Data)
Kudos to Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS) or Central Bureau of Statistics, which provides annual population-related data that can be accessed publicly. Unfortunately, they provide the data in an uneditable pdf format which hinders people from wanting to use them for further analysis. In response to it, we have completed some data preparation that converts them to structured data to ease anyone in utilizing them more seamlessly. You may access the prepared data here.
Jakarta’s Population and Number of Poor People
The two graphs show the trends of Jakarta’s population growth and the total number of poor people living there from 2010 to 2020. Based on BPS criteria, the definition of the poor is the population whose expenditure is below the poverty line.
Generally speaking, in ten years’ time, the population growth in Jakarta had been increasing with steady intervals despite the COVID-19 pandemic that started in 2020. On the other hand, the number of the poor seemed to have been affected by various factors as they fluctuated at some points within the observed period. One thing for sure though, in 2020 when the COVID-19 outbreak happened, there was a significant increase of 30% in the number of the poor from 2019 to 2020.
Economy vs Population
In terms of the Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP), it is obvious that the growth of population corresponded with the growth of GRDP. However, the economic growth experienced a significant leap, while the population growth did not show any major increases between 2010 and 2011. Therefore, it can be assumed that besides the population growth, there were also external factors, such as economic regulations and disasters, which affected the GRDP.
Energy vs Population
Note: Data in 2016 is unavailable
Note: Data in 2016 is unavailable
Energy capacity is the amount of power (kilowatt per hour / kWh) that is ready to be used by the population in a certain area. As it can be seen from Figure 6, the total population in Jakarta continued to grow within the given period. In contrast, the consumption of electricity which increased steadily from 2008 to 2020 experienced a significant drop in 2017. This means that the population growth did not correspond to the energy consumption increase because there were external factors such as energy supply and the number of customers. In addition, Figure 7 shows that the energy supply in Jakarta still exceeded the demand in those years.
Water vs Population
Looking at Figure 8, water consumption and population were positively correlated. However, it does not necessarily mean that population growth had a direct impact on water consumption. There were various other factors, such as the number of customers, the number of water supplies, and people’s purchasing power, that could influence water consumption. Figure 9 also shows that water supply and demand had a stable increase throughout the period.
Based on all of the figures, it can be concluded that preparing energy capacity is vital in overcoming population growth. Despite the data showing sufficient supply, Jakarta needs to constantly be prepared for explosive population growth in the future.
Impact of Population Growth
A. Relationship between Population Growth and Economic Development
“the most delicate and difficult issue of our era… It is overlaid with emotion. It is controversial. It is subtle. Above all, it is immeasurably complex.”
Robert McNamara — Former World Bank President“A country’s greatest wealth is its people.”
Mao Ze Dong“A man could enrich his country by producing a number of children, even if the whole family were paupers.”
William Pitt — Prime Minister of England in 18th century
All of the remarks suggest that population growth is tightly coupled with economic development, and population growth is essential for increasing wealth and development. The Malthusian version, on the other hand, sees population growth as the number one impediment to economic development. The different views lead to an endless debate on whether population growth supports or hinders economic development because the relationship between the two is complex and intricate.
B. Benefits of Population Growth
First, population growth refers to the increasing number of the working-age population who plays an active role in the process of economic growth and development.
Figure 10 illustrates that in general, the unemployment rate had been decreasing steadily from 2010 until 2019 before rising sharply in 2020 due to the unprecedented COVID-19 pandemic that affected the level of the economy and employment. Although population growth can be considered as potential, it can become a burden to the nation instead when there are inadequate jobs available to absorb the growth. Therefore, specific moves and regulations are required to fully utilize the potentials that arise from population growth itself.
Second, population growth means market growth for most goods and services, so the size of the market affects the division of labor. Potentially expanding markets may encourage entrepreneurs to increase their investments in capital goods and machinery. As a result, business activities will increase which lead to more employment opportunities and higher incomes.
Figure 11 shows that average monthly expenditure per capita and population growth were positively correlated. Interestingly, despite a double increase in expenditure from 2010 to 2020, the population growth only rose marginally by around 10%. This trend can become a reference for us to encourage population growth as it indirectly influences economic growth.
C. Costs of Population Growth
Based on the agricultural law of diminishing returns, population growth can have a negative impact on economic development because it is never proportional to food supply growth. The evidence, however, tells a different story. The introduction of green revolution technology in agriculture has increased yields to the point where many countries, including India, are now exporting food grains. Therefore, more research should be conducted to prove whether population growth is a barrier to economic development, even if it requires considerable efforts and capital in the beginning.
Second, population growth puts a strain on natural resources. Researchers are concerned about property, food, and natural resource scarcity. As the world’s population grows, the planet’s finite natural resources are being depleted. Many of our resources, according to Washington University in St. Louis, have a limit. With more people to feed, there will be less nonrenewable energy and water available for future generations.
Furthermore, there is research published by BioMed Central (a division of Springer Nature) demonstrating that energy consumption appears to be an essential component in boosting and maintaining economic growth while also increasing carbon emissions, resulting in environmental degradation. A stronger relationship between economic growth, CO2 emissions, and energy consumption is observed empirically at the regional ASEAN level. As a result, transitioning to more sustainable energy and water will become much more critical in order to keep up with population and economic growth.
Final Thoughts
Population growth certainly affects various sectors of life, including the economy, energy and water consumption, unemployment rates, and the environment. Through the writing above, we can learn various sound arguments that support or do not support population growth. However, based on the figures, there are some external factors that should be taken into consideration when deciding whether population growth in Jakarta brings more harm or good.
Where do you stand? Do you agree with and support population growth in your city or country?
Or in the end, was Thanos right? Is population removal the only way to keep everything balanced and prosperous?
This article was written by Hansen Wiguna (Senior Business Analyst & Lead Sub Team) and Ayu Andika (Data Analyst) from Jakarta Smart City, Data and Analytics Team. Thanks to my friend, Adib Imtiyazi, who reviewed this writing. All of the opinion written in this article is personal and didn’t represent Jakarta Smart City or DKI Jakarta Provincial Government’s point of view.
